• Richard Kipling
  • Kairsty Topp
  • André D. Bannink
  • David Jon Bartley
  • Isabel Blanco-Penedo
  • Raffaele Cortignani
  • Agustín del Prado
  • Gabriele Dono
  • Philippe Faverdin
  • Anne Isabelle Graux
  • Nicholas Hutchings
  • Ludwig Lauwers
  • Özkan Gülzari
  • Pytrik Reidsma
  • Susanne Rolinski
  • Margarita Ruiz-Ramos
  • Daniel L. Sandars
  • Renata Sandor
  • Martin Schönhart
  • Giovanna Seddaiu
  • Jantine C. van Middelkoop
  • Shailesh S. Shrestha
  • Isabelle Weindl
  • Vera Eory

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Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104492
JournalEnvironmental Modelling & Software
Issue number104492
Number of pages21
Publication statusPublished - Oct-2019

ID: 7948113